AI의 빚 폭탄, 1조 6500억 달러 숨은 부채 마주하다

AI’s insatiable need for debt has so far been matched by investors’ appetite for it, but they may turn nauseous on the belly-busting volumes coming from tech giants. Recommended Video The latest quarterly reports from AI hyperscalers show that their massive spending plans remain on track, with Amazon even raising its capital expenditure guidance. That means even more bond issuance is on the way after an already staggering debt orgy. The numbers paint a picture of a borrowing binge that’s bigger—and murkier—than it looks on paper. S&P Global counts $225 billion in bonds issued by hyperscalers and related entities like Nvidia so far this year, putting them on pace for a record haul in 2026—but that’s just the visible debt. Other analyses suggest so-called hidden debt at the five U.S. tech giants has ballooned, meaning the AI boom’s true price tag is only partly reflected in the bond markets that everyone’s watching. Here is what is visible—and just barely visible—in the hyperscalers’ debt loads. ‘Market participants are growing leery’ S&P Global calculated that hyperscalers and “related entities” like Nvidia have issued $225 billion in bonds so far in 2026, representing a 973.7% jump through midyear. They are on pace to issue $400 billion for the full year. But markets are showing signs of fatigue, after absorbing this flood of debt in such a short time, S&P warned, pointing out that hyperscalers are now paying a higher premium compared with yields on risk-free bonds. “Market participants are growing leery of quickly rising leverage from issuers previously characterized by strong and reliable cash flow,” the report said. At the same time, the federal government also needs bond investors to scoop up all the debt coming out of the Treasury Department, with the budget deficit this fiscal year expected to hit nearly $2 trillion. And unlike earlier periods of heavy debt, the Federal Reserve is no longer a big buyer of Treasuries, placing a heavy burden on private-sector investors. Capital Economics noted that if debt trends from the first half of this year continue into the second half, then total corporate and government bond issuance as a share of GDP will be more than any year on record outside the pandemic. RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas said in a note last week that demand for both types of debt remains strong for now. “Yet that will not endure indefinitely,” he added. Federal deficits will eventually cause lenders to charge a higher premium on public and private borrowers, Brusuelas predicted. To be sure, those yields will still attract investors looking for bigger returns, but he also cautioned against complacency. “At some point, the rivers of capital financing private and government debt issuance will flow less freely,” Brusuelas wrote. Meanwhile, the official bond tally that’s hitting the market understates all the actual borrowing that’s going on to fund the AI boom. Explosion in hidden debt According to a study by Nikkei , so-called hidden debt at U.S. tech giants has exploded by 8x in just four years to $1.65 trillion. That amount doesn’t appear on balance sheets and even exceeds the $1.35 trillion in debt that does appear on their books. These hidden debts can consist of tech companies signing long-term purchase deals for graphics processing units and servers, or lease agreements with data center operators, the report said. They are legitimate practices under accounting rules and are not totally hidden as they are often disclosed in annotations in quarterly financial statements, rather than on the balance sheet. Much of the hidden debt will also become official at some point, especially when data centers start operations. Similarly, Moody’s flagged off-balance-sheet deals in a recent report, putting them at $1.2 trillion, with more than $820 billion of that attributed to data centers that are still under construction. The credit rating agency described them as debt-equivalent liabilities that will leave companies on the hook for significant rent payments in the future. Despite all the obligations, Moody’s said hyperscalers still have some of the most robust balance sheets in the corporate world, and their investment-grade ratings are not facing imminent risk. Still, the tech giants are undergoing a fundamental shift, as seen by their relentless spending and borrowing. “Previously, these companies relied on asset-light structures centered on software, intellectual property, and scalable cloud services that required modest capital investment,” Moody’s said. “The transition from asset-light to asset-heavy models requires unprecedented levels of investment and capital raising.” Subscribe to Fortune Gulf Brief . Every Tuesday, this new newsletter delivers clear-eyed, authoritative intelligence on the deals, decisions, policies, and power shifts shaping one of the world’s most consequential regions, written for the people who need to act on it. Sign up here.