예측시장 베팅으로 강제퇴장과 체포까지

Comment Loader Save Story Save this story Comment Loader Save Story Save this story Uncanny Valley is back! This week, senior writer Kate Knibbs joins Brian Barrett, Zoë Schiffer, and Leah Feiger to discuss the two incidents that have been making noise in prediction markets: George Santos getting lifetime ban from Kalshi and a Google engineer’s Polymarket insider-trading case. Plus, reporters reverse-engineered Flock’s AI-powered person-search tool and spoke to experts about the accuracy of such technology, and the hosts unpack the online meltdown over how to talk about “rogue” AI agents. Articles mentioned in this episode: George Santos Just Got Hit With Kalshi’s First-Ever Lifetime Ban Google Engineer Accused of Polymarket Insider Trading Says He Was Just Gambling This Is Flock’s AI Search Tool for Cops What We Still Don’t Know About OpenAI’s Hugging Face Hack The Logical End Point of AI Job Interviews Is Two Bots Talking to Each Other You can follow Brian Barrett on Bluesky at @brbarrett , Zoë Schiffer on Bluesky at @zoeschiffer , Leah Feiger on Bluesky at @leahfeiger , and Kate Knibbs on Bluesky at @knibbs . Write to us at [email protected] . How to Listen You can always listen to this week's podcast through the audio player on this page, but if you want to subscribe for free to get every episode, here's how: If you're on an iPhone or iPad, open the app called Podcasts, or just tap this link . You can also download an app like Overcast or Pocket Casts and search for “uncanny valley.” We’re on Spotify too. Transcript Note: This is an automated transcript, which may contain errors. Leah Feiger : Hey guys, so nice to be back after our two-week summer break. Zoë Schiffer : Longer for me. It's so nice to see you guys. Leah Feiger : I missed you. Zoë Schiffer : I missed you. Leah Feiger : Brian, don't worry. We missed you too. Brian Barrett : I assumed that the you was for all of us. Zoë Schiffer : It was the royal you. Brian Barrett : But now that you've carved me out, that's telling. Thank you. Zoë Schiffer : Welcome to WIRED's Uncanny Valley . I'm Zoë Schiffer, contributing editor. Brian Barrett : I'm Brian Barrett, executive editor. Leah Feiger : And I'm Leah Feiger, director of politics and science. This week we're discussing some recent high profile incidents in prediction markets . Former US representative George Santos was the first person to be given a lifetime ban from Kalshi, and a Google engineer was accused of insider trading at Polymarket. We'll get into why both of these cases show that there are still plenty of blurry rules when it comes to prediction markets. Brian Barrett : We'll also check in on perhaps the most hated tech in the US at the moment, maybe a runner-up to data centers, Flock surveillance cameras . This week, WIRED reporters were able to recreate Flock's AI powered search tool, the same one that has a track record of being misused by police officers. We're going to break down how it works, and whether the backlash against Flock cameras might have reached its boiling point. Zoë Schiffer : And because I simply cannot help myself, we will also be getting into why tech bros on X are melting down over how to discuss rogue AI agents and what happens when they jump their guardrails and coordinate attacks on other systems. Leah Feiger : All right. Do you guys remember George Santos? Brian Barrett : How could I forget? Zoë Schiffer : Absolutely do, but wow, did not expect we would be talking about him again this soon, I have to say. Leah Feiger : Former US representative expelled from Congress in 2023, accused of fraud and theft, and doing it with such a plum that the story just couldn't help but take national news by storm. Brian Barrett : I want to be clear too. He wasn't just accused, he went to jail. Zoë Schiffer : Yeah, I was going to say very credibly accused. Leah Feiger : Anyways, he's back in the headlines this week. On Monday we learned that Santos was hit with a lifetime ban from prediction market platform Kalshi, and a $71,000 fine, allegedly for trying to manipulate a bet on whether he'd show up to Trump's State of the Union. To tell us all the full details, we are joined by WIRED senior correspondent Kate Knibbs. Kate Knibbs : Hi guys, how are you doing? Leah Feiger : Kate, so happy that you're here. Can you take us through my favorite story of the week? Kate Knibbs : I would love to tell you guys about this. And I will say, I feel similarly like Santos, yes, he does do crimes but he does them with such flare that it's hard to hate him. Zoë Schiffer : It's a bad thing that's very fun to watch. Kate Knibbs : Yes. So Santos, at this point when this all begins, he's already expelled from Congress, already gone to jail. He's out of jail, he's making Cameo videos for money , he's doing his thing. So, he posts that he will be attending the State of the Union. And then, while the State of the Union is going on, he posts that he's actually stuck at the airport and he's not attending it. And then he says, "FML." There was a market on Kalshi about whether Santos was going to attend the State of the Union, and someone made a bunch of money off of it. And Kalshi quickly figured out that it was him because Kalshi has know your customer requirements. His identity was not a secret to them, it was not hard for them to check and see that the person who made money was George Santos. Leah Feiger : Awesome. Kate Knibbs : And it's against their rules to place trades or wagers on events that you're a participant in. It's like market manipulation, insider trading, whatever. So even before this happened this week, the CFTC actually also knew about this because Kalshi told them, and they already fined him money for this specific incident. What happened this week was apparently there was this back and forth between Santos and Kalshi , and they fined him $71,000 and then weren't going to lifetime ban him. The same day that they announced the Santos thing, they announced a few other politicians who got in trouble for betting on themselves, and those politicians got much smaller fines and temporary bans. Zoë Schiffer : Wait, do we know how much money he made on the market? Kate Knibbs : I believe it was around 17 grand. I have to double check, but it was in the tens. They ended up enacting this ban basically because he was being a little bit of a prickly pear to work with and wasn't playing ball. So, this is Kalshi basically deciding that they hate George Santos, which is funny. He also immediately, he wouldn't give us comment, which was annoying, but he posted on X some kind of bitchy things about Kalshi. He immediately was like, "Let's see how long you guys last," kissy emoji. So, he doesn't seem super contrite, and I honestly don't even know if he's going to pay Kalshi. I asked them what they would do if he doesn't pay and they said that they would pursue legal action, and I am going to be following that because it will be interesting to see. Zoë Schiffer : This is my big question. Does George Santos want to get away with these crimes, or is there something else going on here? Because it's one thing to participate in the market that you are literally a participant in in real life, but it's another to be blatantly posting about it in very obvious ways on social media. Kate Knibbs : Well, if he did do it basically on purpose, he wouldn't be the first politician to do so. There's actually already a storied history of politicians doing insider trading on Kalshi, getting caught and then saying it was a bit. There's two other people who have already done this. Kyle Langford, who was caught this spring, and then this candidate, Mark Moran, who said that he did it on purpose as a sort of performance art piece aga