SpaceX 상장 공시, 수조원 AI 적자와 2조 달러 목표가

SpaceX IPO filing shows billions in AI losses, a $2 trillion valuation target, and turbine spending that signals more data center conflicts ahead Maximilian Schreiner View the LinkedIn Profile of Maximilian Schreiner May 21, 2026 Nano Banana Pro prompted by THE DECODER SpaceX has filed its IPO paperwork with the SEC, revealing detailed financials. The xAI division is burning through billions, Anthropic pays $15 billion a year for compute, and Elon Musk locks in near-absolute control. SpaceX has publicly filed paperwork for what could be the largest IPO ever with the US Securities and Exchange Commission . The company plans to debut on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, aiming to raise up to $75 billion at a target valuation of up to $2 trillion. The filing reveals a company that's growing fast and burning cash just as fast. In Q1 2026, SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.28 billion on $4.69 billion in revenue. Full-year 2025 revenue climbed to $18.7 billion, but the company swung from a $791 million profit in 2024 to a net loss of $4.94 billion. The AI division is eating most of the budget The biggest cost driver by far is the AI division, folded into SpaceX after the xAI acquisition. More than half of capital spending, which nearly doubled to $20.74 billion in 2025, went to the AI business. Losses in the AI division ballooned from $1.56 billion in 2024 to $6.36 billion in 2025, according to the filing. On top of that, SpaceX plans to acquire AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion , with the deal set to close within 30 days of the IPO. If it falls through, Cursor gets a $1.5 billion cash breakup fee plus $8.5 billion as a "deferred services fee." Anthropic is paying $1.25 billion a month for compute The IPO filing also shows that Anthropic pays SpaceX $1.25 billion per month as part of a compute deal around roughly $15 billion a year through May 2029, according to Axios . Payments for May and June are slightly lower as the deal ramps up. Anthropic is also expanding from SpaceX's Colossus 1 facility to Colossus 2, Anthropic co-founder and Chief Compute Officer Tom Brown disclosed on X . Either side can cancel the contract with 90 days' notice. SpaceX said in the filing it plans to sign more deals like this. Starlink drives revenue while spaceflight stays in the red About two-thirds of Q1 2026 revenue came from Starlink satellite internet. Subscriber counts have surged from 2.3 million in 2023 to 4.4 million in 2024 to 8.9 million in 2025, according to the filing. Starlink's operating income hit $4.42 billion in 2025, up from $2 billion the year before. The actual spaceflight segment, though, is still losing money. It generated $619 million in revenue in Q1 2026 against an operating loss of $662 million. Starship, which SpaceX describes as critical to all its future plans, still isn't fully operational. SpaceX has already poured more than $15 billion into the program. Space data centers and a $28.5 trillion market claim SpaceX also lays out a vision in the filing to put 100 gigawatts of AI compute capacity per year on solar-powered satellites in orbit . That would equal about one-fifth of total US electricity production in 2025, the company says. SpaceX pegs the total addressable market at $28.5 trillion. Whether investors will buy into a $2 trillion valuation remains an open question. Analysts and observers had already called valuations above $1.25 trillion hard to justify, according to Bloomberg, given that revenue mostly comes from Starlink and xAI is hemorrhaging cash. Musk locks in near-absolute control with dual-class shares Elon Musk is locking in near-absolute control over SpaceX through the planned share structure. The company will issue two types of stock: ordinary Class A shares with one vote each and Class B shares carrying ten votes each. Musk holds most of the high-vote Class B shares, giving him 85.1 percent of voting power despite owning far fewer shares overall. After the IPO, he effectively can't be outvoted or removed. SpaceX is also dangling up to one billion additional shares as a bonus if he hits certain milestones, including a Mars colony with at least one million residents. Dual-class structures with unequal voting rights are common at companies like Alphabet, Meta, Snap, and Ford, though the specifics vary. In Musk's case, it's drawing fire. Large pension funds from New York and California have already criticized the setup, according to Bloomberg, since regular investors get virtually no say. Up to 30 percent of shares will go to retail investors through platforms like Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab, directly to individual buyers rather than just big institutional players. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan are leading the offering. Formal marketing for the stock is set to begin June 4, according to Bloomberg, with the final offering price potentially locked in starting June 11. Still unclear is how quickly SpaceX will be added to major US stock indexes, Bloomberg reports. When a stock joins a big index like the S&P 500, funds that track it are forced to buy, creating significant buying pressure and potential price jumps. Roughly $24 trillion is tied to the S&P 500 alone, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. But there's currently a minimum 12-month waiting period after an IPO. Requirements around free float and profitability could also be hurdles for SpaceX. S&P Dow Jones Indices is reviewing rule changes that could fast-track mega-IPOs like SpaceX for index inclusion. xAI is buying $2.8 billion in gas turbines despite an ongoing lawsuit The filing also reveals that SpaceX's xAI division plans to buy $2.8 billion worth of gas turbines for its AI infrastructure over the next three years, including $2 billion for mobile gas turbines. The NAACP recently sued xAI over the operation of nearly 30 unpermitted gas turbines at its data center near Memphis. The EPA already found that xAI was running the turbines in violation of federal law. SpaceX acknowledges the risk in the filing, writing injunctions or revoked permits could adversely affect AI business. Data centers are measurably heating up nearby neighborhoods A new study from Arizona State University adds weight to those concerns. The researchers show that beyond the already known problems of power and water consumption, plus air and water pollution, AI data centers are warming up their surroundings. In the Phoenix metro area air temperatures downwind of data centers averaged 0.7 to 0.9 degrees Celsius higher than upwind readings, with peaks of up to 2.2 degrees Celsius. The effect was measurable up to about 540 meters away. According to lead researcher David Sailor , the waste heat from a single data center can exceed that of 40,000 households. The researchers warn of serious consequences for affected neighborhoods. Higher outdoor temperatures increase cooling demand in nearby homes, which can drive up residents' electricity bills. That creates a vicious cycle: air conditioners run longer or harder because of the extra heat. They pump indoor heat outside and release the electrical energy they consume as additional waste heat, warming the area even further and pushing cooling demand higher still. The added heat also worsens health risks, especially in already heat-stricken regions like Phoenix, where extreme heat is already among the deadliest weather events. Sailor also points out that the effects of individual data centers can compound in clusters—a problem that's only going to grow. US data center capacity is expected to more than double by 2030. AI News Without the Hype – Curated by Humans Subscribe to THE DECODER for ad-free reading, a weekly AI newsletter, our exclusive "AI Radar" frontier report six times a year, full archive access, and access to our comment section. Subscribe now --> Read on for the full picture. Subscribe for hype-free coverage. Access to all THE DECODER articles. Read without distractions – no Google ads. Access t