OpenAI vs Anthropic, 경쟁 속 투자자들은 양쪽에 베팅

Comment Loader Save Story Save this story Comment Loader Save Story Save this story OpenAI and Anthropic have battled for workers, customers , and public attention. The rival AI labs have been on opposite sides of policy proposals , and their CEOs were the only ones not to link hands among a dozen industry leaders at a business summit earlier this year. But they do have one big area of overlap: their investors. About 90 venture capital firms and other money managers have invested in both OpenAI and Anthropic over the past few years, according to a WIRED analysis of data from PitchBook, a platform that tracks startup investments. OpenAI shares about 42 percent of its overall investors with Anthropic, according to the data. Roughly a third of Anthropic investors are also OpenAI backers, including major firms like Sequoia Capital, Greylock, Founders Fund, Redpoint Ventures, Emerson Collective, and Sound Ventures. Just last week, Anthropic made a fundraising announcement that named 31 investors—at least 13 of which have stakes in OpenAI, according to the PitchBook data and WIRED reporting. The number of common investors may be an undercount, because collecting information about private investments is challenging. WIRED identified at least a couple of investors missing from OpenAI’s roster in the PitchBook data, including Amazon . The amount of overlap is astonishing for two fierce competitors that began their fundraising within a couple of years of one another. Three experts who study the venture capital industry described the commonality as unusual, or even unprecedented. The phenomenon reflects the recent evolution of the venture capital industry, the emergence of two extraordinary companies that have raised unheard-of sums of money, and the wide-open competition among them and others in AI. “The ownership structure you are seeing right now is a real insight into how sophisticated investors are viewing this market, and the answer seems to be that few are convinced this will be a winner-take-all market, or if it is, who the dominant player will be,” says Tom Nicholas, a Harvard Business School professor and author of VC: An American History . Got a Tip? Are you an investor, OpenAI employee, or Anthropic employee who wants to talk about what's happening? We'd like to hear from you. Using a nonwork phone or computer, contact the reporter securely on Signal at peard33.24. The intersection of investors is also notable as Anthropic and OpenAI aim to make their stock market debuts this year. Initial public offerings are often a chance for investors to realize gains in their ownership of a startup. But last year , just two-thirds of IPOs attracted a significant pop in value. With bets in both OpenAI and Anthropic, investors may be doubling their odds of success. “Rather than looking at these companies as overlapping technologies, what these large investors are doing is protecting their ability to create returns,” says Kyle Stanford, director of venture capital research at PitchBook. OpenAI and Anthropic didn’t respond to requests for comment. Several venture capital firms that invested in OpenAI and Anthropic also declined or didn’t respond to requests for comment about why they decided to back both. A few would speak only on the condition of anonymity to avoid jeopardizing industry relationships, and each called the dueling investment opportunities with OpenAI and Anthropic unlike any circumstance they had encountered before. Historically, venture capital firms have concentrated their bets on one company in an area of competition to avoid conflicts of interest , Stanford says. Companies sometimes share proprietary information with investors or lean on them for advice or governance, and having stakes in rivals invites awkward conversations. But the venture capital industry has evolved as funds have grown larger . Firms are backing larger numbers of startups, and the companies are staying private longer and raising more money than ever before. OpenAI and Anthropic each have raised well more than $100 billion at valuations approaching $1 trillion. So over the past decade, the line between different classes of investment firms have become increasingly blurred. About 30 of the overlapping Anthropic and OpenAI investors in the PitchBook data are identified as hedge funds, private equity firms, or wealth managers that commonly spread their bets. The rest are traditional angel or venture capital firms now following the same strategy. “Any single investor is going to own such a tiny portion of a company that conflicts are not as big of a concern,” Stanford says. They will be privy to less internal information and have diminished ability to influence a company’s trajectory. “Investors have traditionally wanted to invest in one or the other to make one the winner. These companies are growing so big, that split doesn’t really matter,” Stanford says. Several of the common investors have also invested in Elon Musk’s AI research lab, xAI. It was bought out this year by SpaceX, which is expected to hold its own IPO next week . The closest parallel to the AI investor cross-pollination may come from about a decade ago. Japanese telecom giant SoftBank invested billions of dollars in ride-hailing companies around the world, some of which had ambitions of competing against one another in certain countries. But in the US, while SoftBank backed Uber , it didn’t end up investing in Lyft , the main rival. ‘Pepsi and Coke’ A representative from one large investor says their firm expects its bets on OpenAI and Anthropic to both pay off because demand for AI technologies is widespread. Another describes their stake in one of the companies as too small to be viewed as conflicting with their larger ownership in the other. A venture capitalist, who has helped wealthy families across the US invest in funds that include Anthropic and OpenAI shares, describes AI as a transformational technology that will drive growth across all industries. “Why wouldn’t you want to be in both Pepsi and Coke?” he says. “It’s the same here.” Ankur Nagpal, general partner for USVC, which pools investments starting at as little as $500 from individuals into other funds, makes a similar argument. “Our goal is to create the best way for anyone to own a slice of the most valuable companies in the future,” he says. It's also possible that uncertainty over OpenAI’s unusual corporate structure , which for years explicitly limited the amount of returns investors could expect, could have motivated some funds to take stakes in Anthropic. And it's difficult to discount a fear of missing out. “In this case, some VCs are getting in because they do not want to miss the next big thing,” says University of Chicago economist Steve Kaplan. For at least one investor, the overlap was unintended. The firm Madrona Ventures ended up with shares in both AI giants after one startup it invested in was bought by OpenAI and another was acquired by Anthropic. Inadvertent intersections could grow more common as rapid shifts in AI technology prompt startups to alter course more often. An investor might bet on a company pursuing one vision, only to find it suddenly tackling a business that butts up against another investment, PitchBook’s Stanford says. A handful of big venture capital firms have supported only one of the big AI labs, including OpenAI backers Khosla Ventures and Thrive Capital. Menlo Ventures and General Catalyst, meanwhile, only put their money behind Anthropic, according to the PitchBook data. General Catalyst declined to comment. Khosla didn't respond to requests for comment. Matt Murphy, partner at Menlo Ventures, tells WIRED that the firm goes “all in” to support portfolio companies and doesn't believe in supporting direct competitors. “There can be nuance in some markets, where two companies may appear adjacent but are ultimately headed in very different directions,” he says. “But we did no