번지의 신작 추출 슈터 '마라톤'이 평단의 호평과 약 120만 장의 판매고를 올렸음에도, 스팀 동시 접속자 수 2~3만 명에 머물러 장기 지원에 대한 우려가 나오고 있습니다. 이 글은 글로벌 게임 산업이 포트나이트급 대박에 집착하는 가운데, 소니가 이 실적을 두고 장기 투자할지 단념할지를 지켜보는 업계 현실을 조명합니다.
번역된 본문
지난 한 달 동안 조셉과 저는 바쁜 일상 속에서 시간을 쪼개어 최대한 많이 '마라톤(Marathon)'을 플레이했습니다. 팬데믹 당시 우리는 '콜 오브 듀티: 워존(Call of Duty: Warzone)'을 함께 하며 유대감을 쌓았고, 수년간 그 짜릿함을 다시 느끼려 했지만 번번이 실패했습니다. 번지(Bungie)의 새로운 추출 슈터(Extraction Shooter)가 마침내 우리에게 그 감동을 안겨주었습니다. 우리는 행복해야 하고, 플레이하는 게임 자체에 집중하고 무너져가는 게임 산업을 바라보지만 않는다면 우리는 여전히 행복합니다. 스팀(Steam)이 보여주는 실시간 동시 접속자 수로 대중들에 의해 측정되는 '마라톤'의 상업적 성과는 저희의 게임 즐거움과는 아무런 상관이 없습니다. 하지만 저는 그 숫자를 계속해서 확인할 수밖에 없습니다. 왜냐하면 그것은 현재 게임 산업이 얼마나 냉혹한지, 앞으로 어디로 향할 것인지, 그리고 미래에 '마라톤' 같은 게임이 얼마나 생존 가능할지를 상기시켜 주기 때문입니다.
우리는 '마라톤'의 개발 비용이 얼마나 들었는지, 그리고 번지를 인수하고 게임을 퍼블리싱하는 소니 인터랙티브 엔터테인먼트(Sony Interactive Entertainment)가 이 게임에서 무엇을 원하는지 알지 못합니다. 이 게임은 평단에서 성공을 거두었고, 보고에 따르면 120만 장이 판매되었으며, 저처럼 게임에 푹 빠진 플레이어들은 번지가 출시 후 얼마나 훌륭하게 업데이트와 밸런스 조정을 하는지 사랑합니다. 사람들은 심지어 '마라톤' 캐릭터들의 야한 팬 아트까지 만들고 있습니다. 그럼에도 불구하고 스팀의 동시 접속자 수가 현재 2만 명에서 3만 명 사이에서 머무는 것을 보면 걱정이 앞섭니다. 이 숫자가 소니가 '마라톤'을 장기적으로 지원하기에 충분한 수치일까요? 또한 이 상황을 지켜보는 산업계 나머지 사람들이 '마라톤' 같은 게임을 즐기는 플레이어들이 계속해서 서비스를 제공할 가치가 있는 대상이라고 결정짓기에 충분할까요?
2만~3만 명의 동시 접속자 수가 좋은 숫자인지 아닌지는 상대적이며, 궁극적으로 소니만이 결정할 수 있습니다. 2025년에 스팀에는 19,000개가 넘는 게임이 출시되었고, 그중 100,000달러 이상을 벌어들인 게임은 6,000개에 불과했습니다. 스팀에서만 수천만 달러 이상의 매출을 올린 '마라톤'은 해당 플랫폼에서 가장 수익이 높은 게임 중 하나입니다. '마라톤'의 숫자는 소니의 또 다른 대형 경쟁 슈터였던 '콩코드(Concord)'보다도 훨씬 높은데, '콩코드'는 2024년 출시 한 달도 되지 않아 서비스를 종료하기 전까지 스팀 동시 접속자 700명을 간신히 넘겼습니다. 2025년 게임 어워드에서 공개된 또 다른 멀티플레이어 슈터인 '하이가드(Highguard)' 역시 출시 한 달여 만에 서비스를 종료했습니다. 이 게임은 스팀에서 거의 100,000명에 가까운 동시 접속자 수를 기록했지만, 무료 게임이었습니다.
누구나 순진하게도 소니의 기본적인 계산법이 '마라톤'의 개발 및 유지 비용을 확인하고, 출시 후 얼마나 수익을 내는지 파악한 다음, 이익이 나는 한 서비스를 계속 유지하는 것이라고 생각할 수 있습니다. 하지만 현실은 아마도 그보다 조금 더 냉소적이고 복잡할 것입니다. 번지는 소니가 37억 달러에 인수한 수백 명의 개발자를 고용한 대형 스튜디오입니다. '마라톤'이 포트나이트(Fortnite)와 같은 수준의 성과를 낼 수 없다는 것이 점점 더 명확해지고 있는 지금, 번지가 다음 포트나이트를 만드는 대신 '마라톤'을 선택했음에 따른 기회비용은 예산 항목 중 계산하기 극히 어려운 부분입니다. 물론 인내와 관심만 있다면 여전히 엄청난 수익을 올릴 수 있는 비즈니스 모델이 존재할 수 있습니다. 유비소프트(Ubisoft)는 2015년에 미지근한 반응을 얻으며 '레인보우 식스 시즈(Rainbow Six Siege)'를 출시했지만, 꾸준한 지원, 업데이트, 그리고 교묘한 루트박스 기반의 수익화 방식을 통해 10년 동안 굴러가는 '현금 창출기'로 만들었습니다. 이는 본질적으로 '포 아너(For Honor)'에도 똑같이 적용되었는데, 여러분은 그 게임이 존재한다는 사실을 잊었을지 모르지만 이 게임 역시 2017년부터 지금까지 서비스되고 있습니다.
하지만 소니는 분기별 성장을 보여주기를 원하는 상장 기업이며, 수백 명의 게임 개발자를 고용하는 것과 더불어 발생하는 적당한 수준의 건전한 이익은 주주들이 열광하는 것이 아닙니다. 소니는 포트나이트급 성과를 원하지만, 이는 포트나이트조차 더 이상 포트나이트 같은 성과를 내지 못하고 있는 현실에서 매우 무리한 요구입니다. 우리의 친구들인 리맵 라디오(Remap Radio)는 플레이어 수에 대한 논의가 게임에 대해 우리에게 아무것도 가르쳐 주지 않으며 종종 독이 된다는 이유로 이에 대해 길게 이야기한 바 있습니다. 그러한 게임들이...
For the last month Joseph and I have been playing as much Marathon as we can fit into our busy lives. During the pandemic, we bonded over playing Call of Duty: Warzone , and we’ve been chasing that high for years with little success. Bungie’s new extraction shooter finally gave it to us. We should be happy, and we are as long as we’re focused on the game we’re playing and not the industry that’s collapsing around it. Marathon ’s commercial success, measured by outsiders mostly by the number of people Steam shows is actively playing the game at any given moment, has no bearing on our enjoyment. But I can’t help but follow those numbers because they are a reminder of how brutal the video game industry is right now, where it might be headed, and how viable Marathon and games like it are in the future. We don’t know how much Marathon cost to develop or what Sony Interactive Entertainment, which owns Bungie and is publishing the game, wants from it. The game has been a critical success , has reportedly sold 1.2 million copies , and players who have latched onto it like myself love how Bungie has been updating and balancing it after release. People are making horny fan art of Marathon characters. At the same time, I watch the number of concurrent players on Steam, currently hovering at between 20,000 and 30,000, and fret. Is that enough for Sony to support Marathon for the long haul, and is it enough for the rest of the industry that’s watching this unfold to decide that the kind of player who enjoys a game like Marathon is still worth catering to? Whether 20,000-30,000 concurrent players is a good number or not is relative and ultimately a decision only Sony can make. More than 19,000 games released on Steam in 2025 and only 6,000 of them earned more than $100,000 . With at least tens of millions of dollars worth of sales on Steam alone, Marathon is one of the highest earning games on that platform. Marathon’s numbers are also considerably higher than Sony’s other big competitive shooter, Concord , which barely cracked 700 concurrent players on Steam before it was shuttered in 2024, barely a month after it was released. Highguard , another multiplayer shooter that was unveiled at the end of 2025’s Game Awards, also shuttered just a bit over a month after it launched. It peaked at almost 100,000 concurrent players on Steam, but it was free to play. One might naively assume that the basic math at Sony would be to see how much Marathon cost to develop and maintain, see how much money it’s making after launch, and to keep the party going as long as it’s turning a profit. The reality is probably a bit more cynical and complicated than that. Bungie is a big studio that employees hundreds of developers that Sony acquired for $3.7 billion . One line item on Marathon’s budget that’s extremely hard to calculate is the opportunity cost of Bungie making Marathon as opposed to the next Fortnite , now that it’s becoming increasingly clear that Marathon will not be doing Fortnite numbers. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a tremendously profitable business to be had there, given some patience and care. Ubisoft launched Rainbow Six Siege in 2015 to a tepid response, but has turned it into a decade-old cash cow with consistent support, updates, and a devious loot box-based monetization scheme. It essentially did the same thing for For Honor , a melee multiplayer game that I bet you forgot existed but that’s been going since 2017. But Sony is a publicly traded company that wants to show quarter over quarter growth, and a modestly healthy profit that also happens to keep hundreds of game developers employed is not what shareholders are salivating over. Sony wants to do Fortnite numbers, which is a very tall order considering that even Fortnite isn’t doing Fortnite numbers anymore . Our friends at Remap Radio have spoken at length about why discussions about player numbers teach us little about games and are often toxic. Part of the reason that games like Concord and Highguard can crash and burn so quickly is that the numbers become a self-fulfilling prophecy. There’s skepticism about the game before it launches, and when it fails to go viral, people write it off because why would they invest their time in an online game with player numbers that signal imminent and unceremonious execution by its financial backers, which only leads to even lower player numbers. It also shifts the conversation entirely away from what the game is, what people like about it, and why, and to its business model, infecting players with the quarterly earnings report view of the world. Games and players become expressions and subjects of business models, and the part where we play games because we enjoy them are reduced to a curious byproduct of Sony’s Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization. Games from major publishers become either mega hits or are quickly slapped with the “dead game” label before they’re taken offline. What the game actually was is barely relevant. Everyone I’m playing Marathon with is aware of the player numbers anxiety but is responding to it in different ways. Most of us are doing armchair video game industry analysis, while others are actively trying to enjoy Marathon ’s popularity while we can precisely because it may be fleeting and eventually unavailable to play. Some of us are buying in-game cosmetic items not because we want them that bad, but as a signal to Sony that there’s money to be made here. Adding to this player count anxiety is the fact that the video game industry appears to be going through what is increasingly looking like a proper crash. I don’t think we’ll ever have another near extinction event like the video game crash of 1983, where for a moment it didn’t seem like video games would even continue to be a thing, but a full one third of game developers in the U.S. were laid off last year , and the huge layoffs just keep on coming. The question of whether Marathon is a viable business for Sony naturally leads us to the question: What business does Sony even want to be in going forward? Is it a business that’s in continuity with the games we grew up playing on the PlayStation and PlayStation 2, or will the market force it to chase something like Roblox or other free-to-play models? Can this continuity even exist when a PlayStation 5 Pro now costs $899 and a PlayStation 6 will cost more? Those are prices for 30 and 40 year-olds with disposable income, not the younger audiences game publishers need to be winning over now for their future business. Sony and other video game publishers are already losing them to different kinds of games and forms of entertainment. “Marathon's low gravity, bouncy physics, and methodical boot clunks echo Master Chief's graceful, weighty gait circa 2004. It's got modern conveniences like aim-down-sights, sprinting, sliding—and yet Marathon evokes a more civilized age,” Morgan Park wrote in his excellent review in PC Gamer . “Those qualities make it more accessible to a range of people who struggle to keep up in faster games while maintaining a skill range in other disciplines: timing, positioning, and perception. It's fairly easy to track targets, but you're still rewarded for nailing headshots, taking the high ground, and utilizing shell abilities. Does that make Marathon an unc game?” To answer Park’s rhetorical question for him, yes, Marathon is in fact an unc game, which explains both why I like it so much and why I’m worried about its future. As you probably know, unc, short for uncle, is a way to jokingly refer to old, potentially out of touch people. As far as I can tell, it entered the video game discourse in the form of this meme in which a soyfaced unc excitedly points at the hall of fame of so-called “unc slop,” or, in other words, games that old people say are very good. Some of the games in this collage of video game box art includes Half-Life 2 , Dawn of War , World of Warcraft , STALKER , Mass Ef