차세대 LLM을 향한 스타트업들의 도전

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY MIT Technology Review ’s What’s Next series looks across industries, trends, and technologies to give you a first look at the future. You can read the rest of them here . Way back in the summer of 2017, AI researchers at Google put out a paper called “Attention Is All You Need,” in which they described a new type of neural network called a transformer. It proved to be very good at processing long sequences of data, especially text. Nine years on, transformers are the engines inside every major large language model on the market. “The entire AI industry is built on transformers,” says Justin Dangel, cofounder and CEO of the AI startup Subquadratic. “They are one of the most important innovations in the history of computer science, and they’ve changed the world.” But transformers are starting to show their age. Many of the recent advances in LLMs, such as the development of so-called reasoning models and their ability to handle large amounts of input at once, are not neat extensions of that core technology but workarounds that patch over some of its fundamental flaws. A growing number of scientists and engineers are now asking what’s coming next. LLMs are not going anywhere, but the way they get built is up for grabs. ( MIT Technology Review dubbed this future generation of models LLMs+ in this year’s list of the 10 things that matter in AI .) Enter a wave of startups hoping to push the boundaries of this boomtown technology. Some will no doubt fail—but they have everything to play for and far less to lose than the companies at the front of the pack today. Strength in numbers But first, the problem. The key strength of transformers lies in a mechanism called dense attention, which encodes the meaning of a block of text in a series of numbers . The process involves comparing every word (or part of a word, known as a token) in that text with every other word via a form of multiplication. Dense attention can capture the meaning of text with remarkable accuracy. But as the length of that text grows, the number of computations needed to process it adds up fast. A document 10,000 words long might require a transformer to perform 50 million multiplications. That’s the main reason LLMs suck up so much power . The costs are huge. OpenAI is set to spend $50 billion on computing this year , according to the company’s president, Greg Brockman. And the International Energy Agency predicts that the total amount of electricity consumed by data centers will double by 2030 . What’s more, transformers struggle with what many of the latest models are designed to do. Because of the way they process text word by word, transformers are not great at keeping track of a lot of information at once (in other words, what's known as their context window cannot get too large). And yet if LLMs are to carry out harder tasks, they will need to take in larger amounts of data: a whole library of documents, an entire code base, or in the case of agents, output from other LLMs. As for reasoning models, they work by writing notes to themselves (in a kind of scratch pad known as a chain of thought ) and then reading them back, which again adds to the amount of data to stay on top of. As LLMs get bigger and better, transformers have become a bottleneck. The technology’s key strength is now a limitation. Here are four new ideas for how to solve the transformer problem—innovations that could change LLMs for good, making them faster, far more efficient, and (maybe) even smarter. 01: Rethinking attention An obvious way to make LLMs faster and cheaper is to tackle the problem head on and change the way attention works. Swapping out dense attention for a mechanism called sparse attention, which runs calculations on only some pairings of words in a block of text instead of all of them, can radically reduce the amount of computation LLMs need to do. Researchers have come up with plenty of sparse attention mechanisms over the years. The problem is that none of them were as good as dense attention at capturing meaning. That might have changed. Subquadratic, a startup based in Miami, claims it has invented the first sparse attention mechanism that rivals top mainstream LLMs on a handful of tasks, including search and coding. It’s a huge claim (and some people in the industry remain skeptical ). Subquadratic says its model, SubQ, works by figuring out on the fly—for each piece of text it is given—which words matter and which don’t. The company also claims that thousands have signed up to its waitlist and plans to make the model widely available soon. Meanwhile, Manifest AI, a startup based in San Francisco, is coming at the problem from a different angle. Instead of changing how attention works, it is replacing it with something else. It has developed a mechanism it calls power retention, which stores only the most relevant information for a given task and ensures that the amount of data an LLM has to keep track of doesn’t blow up. Attention mechanisms force LLMs to keep track of everything in their context window. A sparse attention model (such as SubQ) throws out a lot of the individual words, but it still retains a rough picture of everything it has seen. In contrast, power retention works by providing the model with a rolling summary of its context window. As new information is added, less relevant information is dropped. The basic principle of retention has been around for a decade. Manifest AI claims it has updated those techniques to build models that can stand up to transformer-based LLMs for the first time. The company says it is possible to adapt a transformer model into a power retention model with minimal retraining. To demonstrate this, it has turned an existing open-source coding LLM called StarCoder into a version that uses power retention, called PowerCoder. It has also released a model called Brumby, which it claims rivals some versions of Alibaba’s popular open-source model Qwen. Manifest AI wants its power retention tech to become the go-to solution when LLMs need to carry out tasks that involve processing huge amounts of data. There are many useful applications, Manifest AI’s cofounder and CTO, Carles Gelada, claimed in a video announcing his company’s technology last year—from analyzing videos that are hours long to building agents that can stay on task for weeks at a time. 02: Making models smaller and more flexible Liquid AI, an MIT spinout based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, hasn’t changed or ditched transformers fully but pairs them with its own tech, liquid neural networks, to build what cofounder and CEO Ramin Hasani calls LFMs (liquid foundation models). Liquid AI’s models are far smaller and use less energy than most LLMs. The firm builds models for car makers, including Mercedes, which run on the small chips inside vehicles. Its latest models can run on a Raspberry Pi, a low-powered hobbyist computer that costs $50. Its models are available for free to any organization with an annual revenue less than $10 million. And they have proved popular: The company has racked up almost 34 million downloads, says Hasani. Liquid neural networks were inspired by worm brains. They are an extension of another type of neural network that predates transformers, called convolutional networks. The key innovation is a mechanism that lets a model adapt its behavior to new information, so it can learn as it goes. That’s not possible with transformers: Once a model is trained, its behavior is fixed. Liquid AI’s first models were pretty basic but could fly drones or drive vehicles. With LFMs, the company is trying to scale up its technology to compete with mainstream LLMs. Its new models match the performance of rivals four times bigger, including versions of Alibaba’s Qwen and Google’s open-source LLM Gemma. A typical LLM is built from a stack of transformers wired together. Liquid AI’s recent LFMs are hybrid models made up of 20% transformers and 80% liquid neural networks. Th